EVIDENCE-FIRST · READ ONLY · PAPER/SHADOW
Research intelligence
Calibration, regime, agreement, and chronological validation. Empty panels mean evidence has not yet been collected—not zero risk or zero edge.
A. Model leaderboard
| Model | N | Brier | Log loss | ECE |
|---|
B–C. Calibration reliability
D. Net expected value distribution
E. Model agreement matrix
Awaiting synchronized primary forecasts.
F. Market regime timeline
G. Performance by regime
| Regime | N | Brier | ECE |
|---|
H. Backtest versus forward test
No completed chronological run recorded.
I. Shadow-model activity
| Time | Market | Side | Decision | Net EV |
|---|